Social Rocket
By the end of October, according to Deloitte, 28 percent of planned US Christmas budgets could already be spent. For performance and social media teams, this raises a different budget question: how much purchase intent is lost if shopping ads only ramp up for Black Friday weekend? The figure comes from the 15Deloitte Holiday Retail Survey2026, published on October , and is not a German market forecast.
The numbers behind early purchase interest
Deloitte surveyed 4.000 US consumers online from 26 August to 10 September 2026. 22 percent want to start their Christmas shopping earlier than last year. According to the press release on the study, around four in ten respondents plan to use October offers; for Cyber Monday the corresponding figure is 44 percent. At the same time, demand remains high in late November and early December. This is an argument for different campaign phases, not for shifting the entire budget into October.
Channel choice also plays a role in planning: on average, respondents expect to spend 55 percent of their merchandise budget online. 39 percent use generative AI for at least one task in gift planning, but only 16 percent would let an AI system complete the purchase. Product research, comparison and checkout therefore remain separate steps. The study was also covered by Modern Retail on 19 October.
Experience gifts complement traditional goods
The Deloitte survey contains a second important trend alongside early shopping: 50 percent of surveyed US consumers plan to give experiences as gifts – up from 47 percent last year and 39 percent in 2024. Examples include restaurant visits or event tickets. 37 percent mention restaurant gifts, 19 percent event tickets.
This does not mean that retail gifts are being pushed out: 79 percent of those who want to give experiences also plan to give physical gifts. In addition, the survey describes intentions, not purchases already made. The US data cannot be directly transferred to Germany.
For social media campaigns, this opens up a broader creative set: an event ticket can be told as a shared experience, a restaurant voucher through local recommendations, or creator experiences. What matters with these formats too is measurement: clicks on gift ideas are neither redeemed vouchers nor attended events. Hotels, hospitality and event providers should therefore factor in bookings, cancellations and redemptions – and not cut classic product campaigns solely because of the trend.
What this means for social media budgets
Before the sale: test gift ideas, concrete product comparisons and creator demonstrations early. A Snapchat analysis of early gift buying shows why inspiration doesn't only become relevant at the end of November.
During promotion weeks: make price, delivery date, availability and the actual saving visible in the creatives. For shopping ads, our Pinterest Black Friday checklist offers a complementary perspective on product feeds and attribution.
After the first peak: don't generally switch off retargeting and new gift ideas. The Meta holiday strategy on Reels, creators and AI provides further platform-specific approaches.
Why German retailers should not copy the rate
The US Christmas season, advertising costs, promotional days and purchasing power cannot be transferred one-to-one to Germany. Even within the Deloitte sample, these are planning figures, not already measured October sales. A better approach is a test: compare early social campaigns with later promotional phases based on revenue, customer acquisition costs, cancellations and margin, instead of adopting the US figure as a fixed German budget split.
Stock image: Mel Poole / Unsplash.