Social Rocket
Adobe expects 2026 significantly more shop traffic from AI services during the US holiday season. According to the new forecast, referrals from AI chat and browser services to US retail websites are set to rise by 130 percent compared with the previous year.
275,1 billion US dollars in online revenue expected
For November and December, Adobe forecasts 275,1 billion US dollars in online revenue in the US, 6,7 percent more than 2025. At the same time, social media is expected to grow its share of attributed online revenue by 17 percent. Affiliates and partners are expected to grow by 12 percent, paid search by 4 percent.
Within affiliate and partner traffic, Adobe says 22 percent comes from influencers and creators. This brings social discovery and creator recommendations closer to measurable purchase processes.
How brands can improve their visibility in AI answers is explained in our guide to ChatGPT recommendations and AI visibility. How AI is moving directly into commerce is also shown by Instacart's Cart Assistant.
Mobile remains central
Adobe expects 57,4 percent of holiday online revenue to come from smartphones. Buy Now Pay Later is expected to contribute 21,3 billion US dollars, of which 82 percent on mobile.
The forecast applies exclusively to the US market and cannot be directly transferred to Germany. For German marketing teams, the direction is what matters most: AI search, social media, creators and mobile checkout are growing more closely together.