Social Rocket
In the final quarter 2026, advertisers are shifting additional budgets into social video, search ads and retail media. At the same time, the risk grows of confusing platform revenue with genuinely new revenue. The current forecasts show a strongly growing market volume – but they do not prove that every additional euro in the respective ad account is spent profitably.
Social is growing significantly faster than the overall market
WARC Media expects global advertising spending for the full year 2026 of 1,34 trillion US dollars, eleven point nine percent more than 2025. Social media is set to grow by 21,3 percent to 394,6 billion dollars, retail media by 14,3 percent to around 202,1 billion dollars. Social, search and retail media together account for 66,4 percent of worldwide spending. The 21,3 percent is an annual forecast, not a measured growth rate for the third or fourth quarter alone.
WARC also expects social video to account for more than half of global video advertising spending for the first time (51,7 percent). This figure describes the distribution of advertising money, not the share of viewing time, reach or purchases completed.
Budgets are rising – but not everywhere equally
The British industry body IPA reported on 15 October 2026 that in the third quarter 25,6 percent of surveyed companies had increased their marketing budgets and 11,3 percent had cut them. The net balance value of plus 14,3 points is not an average budget growth of 14,3 percent. By channel group, online and video budgets, among others, rose.
Six media buyers surveyed by Digiday on 26 October report a stronger Q4 prioritisation of measurable performance channels. Individual agencies cite double-digit growth rates in social or retail media budgets for their clients. These statements describe client portfolios, not a representative German market survey. The US election campaign also creates special effects on inventory prices that do not apply directly to Germany.
Why more retail media does not automatically bring more new customers
Ads on commerce platforms often appear where consumers are already searching for products. This makes orders easier to attribute, but it can also capture existing demand. A convincing figure on ad revenue or ROAS therefore does not answer how many sales would have failed to happen without the ad.
The Commerce Media Measurement Standards V2.1 from IAB Europe, updated in January, define, among other things, incrementality as well as gross and net revenue, and clarify comparison periods. German marketing teams should insist on these terms: new customers, additional contribution margin, returns and genuine control groups are more reliable than aggregated platform conversions.
Walmart's brand lift measurement makes clear why ad recall, revenue lift and incremental ROAS answer different questions. Our analysis of the new retail media standards goes deeper into the comparability of different networks.
A meaningful Q4 comparison for German advertisers
Rather than reallocating budgets based on the highest reported platform ROAS, teams should compare the same periods, regions, products and margins. A channel that efficiently retargets existing customers does not necessarily solve the problem of missing new-customer demand. A brand therefore needs both short-term sales effects and longer-term reach and brand effects.
The WARC analysis of the advertising share of consumer goods brands shows how widely advertising spend varies by industry. The example of Lowe’s Retail Media on TikTok and Reddit illustrates how retail data and offsite social inventory are increasingly converging.
Sources: WARC Media: Social Video and Global Ad Investment, 16. October 2026, IPA Bellwether Report Q3/2026, IAB Europe: Commerce Media Measurement Standards V2.1, Digiday, 26. October 2026.